CURRENT POSITION · WEEK 17 · NZT

Stable risk in Ōpōtiki corridor. $0.0M margin exposure through Wk19.

RECOMMENDED ACTION Maintain current allocation. Recheck on Monday cycle.

Confidence: 90% Updated: — Model: APO v4

WHERE

PORT Katikati Te Puke Ōpōtiki
Risk corridor · 24/100
12M trays · 4 corridors active

Ōpōtiki–Tauranga

Highest-risk active corridor

WHEN

Wk17 — peak risk · +18% vs baseline

Peak exposure

Wk19 — highest forecast risk

COST

$0.0M
vs $3.8M FY24 baseline · ▲18%

Margin exposure NZD

Cost of Delay · current season
01 LIVE

Strategic Monitor

Predictive Risk Score
24
/ 100
Low risk environment. Export operations within normal parameters. Premium tier payments accruing.
LOW RISK
+
PREMIUM TIER ACTIVE
DM exceeds 16.1% SunGold MTS. Taste Premium payment tier unlocked. Premium NZD uplift active across pool.
OTIF Rate
94.2%
On-Time In-Full · SH2 + Rainfall
Tray Returns NZD
$384M
Seasonal estimate · premium-adjusted
Freight Cost Variance
+2.1%
vs baseline · SH2 congestion driver
Margin Erosion
−0.8%
Net impact across DM + Logistics
Economic Impact — Cost of Delay Model
LIVE CALC
Port Dwell Time
18.0 h
vs 12h baseline
Cost of Delay
$1,872
NZD · per FEU
Shelf-life Lost
0.0 d
biological erosion
Reefer Rental
$45
NZD · excess hours
PTE Mode
Modern
PTE 100 · −0 days
Season Exposure
$4.4M
2,341 containers
Cost of Delay exposure 6h excess
Shelf-life remaining — 90d nominal
CoD = NZD $312 × excess dwell hours + $7.50 × h (reefer) + shelf-life erosion (0.4 d/12h) × P_tray × Q_trays
PTE = T_target(6h) / T_actual × 100 · Legacy packhouse adds +6h pull-down, net −4 shelf-life days
2026 Payment Structure — Live Calculation
SunGold G3 Premium
Submit Rate
$3.60/tray
Taste Bonus
+$0.53/tray
Effective Rate
$4.13/tray
$384M NZD seasonal
−$0M vs maximum premium
DM 16.2% ≥ 16.369% (Ōpōtiki mean) → qualifies SunGold Premium @ $3.60/tray.
Source: Grower Payments Booklet 2026 · Ōpōtiki Dry Matter mean: 16.369%
02 GIS

Regional Intelligence

Agents: 0
NZTA · connecting…
Stable · Risk < 25
Elevated · 25–60
Critical · > 60
🗺

Interactive map available on desktop and tablet.

Agents Active
0
in-transit trucks
Premium Aura
0
DM > 17%
Port Arrived
0
this session
Total Return
$0
NZD accumulated
03 SIM

Forecast Lab

What-If Climate Scenario Engine
Cyclone Risk Index
5 %
NoneWatchWarningCat 3+
Frost Risk
3 %
NoneLowHighSevere
BOP Subregion Risk — Phytosanitary
Source: Phytosanitary · 2026
Te Puke (core)Ōpōtiki (outlier)
Te Puke
Katikati
Tauranga
Ōpōtiki
Outliers
Taste Premium Grade Meter
Source: Grower Payments · 2026
0.00 (MTS fail) 0.56 1.00 (premium)
DM Grade
B
Quality Score
0.56
Taste Bonus
$0.53
Pool Rate
$3.73
Corridor OTIF — Tray Delivery
Source: SH2 Corridor · 2026 PW17
Vibration Stress Index (VSI)
0.0
0 — Safe45 — Alert100
VSI = Σ(G × f × Δt) × k_temp · Threshold 45/100
26-Week Risk Arc — Season Projection
90% confidence band
04 RPT

Executive Vault

Scenario Intelligence Report

APOPHENIA — Executive Briefing

Operational Risk Intelligence · Season 2026 · Week 17

Risk Assessment

Current predictive risk score: 24/100. Operations within normal parameters. Premium tier active — SunGold G3 pool returning $4.13/tray effective rate.

Supply Chain Status

OTIF rate: 94.2%. SH2 corridor congestion at 25% — within acceptable bounds. Open-Meteo 7-day rainfall forecast: 18mm — dry conditions confirmed.

Economic Impact

Seasonal export value: $384M NZD. Cost of Delay exposure: $4.4M across 2,341 containers at current dwell time. Packhouse PTE: Modern (100%) — no shelf-life degradation.

Senior Consultant Recommendation

Conditions are optimal for export submission. Maintain current dry matter monitoring cadence. No corrective action required at this threshold.

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